Most Americans say prediction markets resemble gambling, poll finds

(The Center Square) – Most Americans think prediction markets tied to sports operate like gambling and should be regulated the same way as traditional sportsbooks, a new national survey found.

The poll, conducted by Morning Consult and commissioned by the advocacy group Gambling is Not Investing, surveyed more than 15,000 U.S. adults in March.

It found that 81% of respondents think betting on sports through prediction markets is the same as gambling. Many also expressed concern about how these platforms present their products, with 73% saying terms like “event contracts,” “swaps,” or “futures” make it harder for people, especially young men, to recognize the financial risks.

The survey also found concern about access for younger users. 

Although most state-regulated sportsbooks require users to be at least 21, prediction market platforms often let 18-year-olds place bets. Over three-quarters of respondents said they worry that this difference could increase gambling-related harm among young adults.

Americans overwhelmingly support applying existing gaming laws to prediction markets. The poll found that 81% of respondents say these platforms should follow state regulations, including age restrictions, tax requirements, and safeguards against problem gambling.

Mick Mulvaney, executive director of Gambling is Not Investing, said the findings highlight growing unease.

“This polling confirms that unabated sports gambling on prediction markets is a growing concern across America,” Mulvaney said in a statement provided to The Center Square. “Prediction markets are trying to disguise their sports betting products as a financial investment, misleading Americans, and dodging consumer safeguards are like age requirements. “Let’s face it, if it quacks like a duck, it’s sports betting.”

The survey also points to skepticism about federal oversight. Less than one-third of respondents said they believe the Commodity Futures Trading Commission can effectively regulate sports-related contracts offered by prediction market platforms.

Additionally, people have limited confidence in consumer protections surrounding prediction markets. Most respondents lack confidence that prediction markets provide safeguards similar to licensed sportsbooks, and many expressed concern about the potential for insider trading.

Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts based on the outcome of events, including sporting events.

The issue has drawn attention from lawmakers and regulators at both the state and federal levels, with some proposals seeking to limit and clarify how prediction markets can legally operate.